Posts Tagged ‘Warren Buffet’

Why Can’t People Make Money in Stock Market

November 17th, 2009

FutureMoney_stockmarketStock market went down to rock bottom last October, banks and insurance companies failed, investors lose huge amount of money, and followed by raise of unemployment rate. Government gave out hundreds billions dollar tax payers’ money in the form of bailout just to keep the economy afloat. More than a year later, economy is almost back to positive, from the look of it. However, one must not deny it is getting more risky to get into the market nowadays, consider the stock market has rallied beyond the economy fundamental (In my opinion) when unemployment rate is still high and many companies are still losing money. Any negative news will send the stock market into a major correction. As stock investor, it is important for us to learn what are the major mistakes we could possibly make thus to avoid it.

  1. Lack of financial literacy – One of the major reason why people lose money investing in stock market is because lack of financial education. In order to invest in stock market, one must understand and know how to read financial statements of the company that you are investing in. Three financial statements that we need to understand when come to analyzing a company’s financial position: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. Besides it is very important to understand stock and financial jargons before we can even start looking at stock market. Take one example: Stock ABC and DEF are both selling at $5 and $50 respectively. Which stock is more expensive? A person without any financial knowledge will think $50 is more expensive because the amount is larger. However a person with financial education would understand it takes the underlying company asset and financial prospect to evaluation the true value of the stock. In our example let say ABC cost $5 where by it should have worth $1, and DEF cost $50, where by it is really worth $100. Now which one is more expensive? Obviously stock ABC is 400% more expensive than it should be.
  2. Follow other people’s idea – Many people without financial education of stock will turn to other sources such stock analysis column in newspaper. Stock analysis is a good reference material for beginner stock investors but it shouldn’t be treated as investment decision. The reason why people can’t make money from buying stock analysis idea is because most analysis reports simply come out too late, before the analysis report being published, professional investors has already gone in and wait to make the killing. Small investors who buy into the stock idea will later go in and immediately get killed by well-informed investors.  
  3. Buying Hot Tips – A lot of time in stock investing arena we heard about so called hot tips from insiders. No people know exactly how true is the tips until proven otherwise. This is when people make a lot of losses by plunging into the stock. Thing is, most of the hot tips is spread from insider just so to push up the stock price so some one also from “inside” can make a profit. This kind of rise is not sustainable in long term, and it will retrace as soon as the news died down or some one has made a handsome profit by selling off the stock.
  4. Emotional Investor – Admittedly when comes to investing our own money, there is a part in us will always react irrationally, this is our emotion. The fear of losing money. The greed when seeing other investors making money. For those who fears, it usually happens when the person have previously experienced heavy loss from stock investing. The painful experience of losing money will cause him to back away from buying opportunities even though it is good time to buy. Fear will cause investors to stand at the side line, wait and see, and these investors will wait and see as long as they are afraid, but it is only when their fear overwhelmed by greed then they went into the market. They eventually get slaughtered because it is too late when they go in. Wait until fear overcame by greed is too late. There is one saying by the world wealthiest stock investor Warren Buffet: When everyone is afraid, you should be greedy. But when everyone is greedy, you should be very afraid.
  5. Sell Too Early and Sell Too Late – The first one will not earn you much money, and second one will lose you lots of money. Many people invest in stock without a clear set of exit strategies, strategies define when to sell to lock in to profit and when to sell to cut loss. Many people will sell their stock way too early and then witness the stock price skyrockets afterward. Even more people will hold on tight to the stock as long as the stock is going down, then sell only before it hits zero. Actually, these behaviors can also be attributed from lack of financial intelligence, the skill required to determine the stock intrinsic value thus developing the exit strategy.
  6. Timing the Market - Some investors believe in prediction, they believe there are signs to look out for the next big stock  market movement but many times they are wrong. They make huge loss from believing the so called prophecy. The thing is, stock market is consist of hundreds of millions of institutional, professional and individual investors who act and behave differently that contributed to the erratic and irrational stock movements over time. No one in their limited humanly mind can precisely predict what is going on next.
  7. Over Diversified – Certain level of diversification is good thing, as it could reduce losses when you are wrong but at the same time it also limit the profit when you are right. Over diversified will most probably kill you. Imagine having to keep track of 10 to 20 stocks per day. Besides, there is a thing call minimum brokerage fee that you need to pay for every stock trade. Since the proportion of each stock investment is small, minimum brokerage fee incurred will drown your potential return so much even before you make profit and try imagining most of the stocks remain status quo. As our greatest stock investor Warren Buffet says diversification is for birds. One diversifies only when he doesn’t know what he is doing.

Further topics related to stock investing:

  1. Where To Learn Financial Literacy
  2. What Warren Buffet Sees In His Companies
  3. 7 Ways To Pick Quality Stocks
  4. How You Can Make Money In Market Downturn

What Warren Buffet Sees In His Companies?

October 14th, 2009

Warren Buffet raised a can of Coke and said that it is easy to understand business of the soft drink, while he was giving a MBA talk at University of Florida. It is a simple business. Not easy, but simple. A business needs to have a moat around it and a wonderful and valuable castle in the center. And a person running the business needs to be honest, hard working and capable.

The moat can be low cost company like in Geico – the auto insurance company. People have to buy auto insurance. People can’t buy 20 policies, but they have to buy one since they usually have one automobile at home. People have to buy it based on service and cost. People assume that the service at any auto insurance company is the same so all you can do is compete on cost. Being the lowest cost producer is the moat.

30 years ago, Eastman Kodak’s moat was just as wide as Cokes moat. Kodak was the go to brand in cameras. Everyone had the vision in their head that Kodak was the best. But Kodak let Fuji into their castle due to an error where Fuji advertised via the Olympics instead of Kodak. Fuji eventually was viewed to be at parity with Kodak eventually.

Coke’s moat is wider than it was 30 years ago. Every day that Coke enters a new marketplace, the moat gets a little bigger. You don’t see it every day but over the long term you can see it. 

Moats can exist due to things like:

1) Service

2) Quality of Product

3) Cost

4) Patents

5) Real Estate location

6) It needs to be obvious that people can not easily enter the market.

 

He furthered by explaining the business of Coke:

 The one thing people don’t understand about all Colas is that it doesn’t have any taste memory. You can drink one every hour and you don’t get sick of it after awhile. You can not say that about orange soda, cream soda root beer, etc. People around the world can become heavy users. You can not do that with other products. The average person in the US drinks 64 ounces of liquid a day. You can have all 64 ounces by drinking Coke (or any Cola). With any other product, you will get sick of it after a while. Because of this, over the world, sales of Coke will increase per capita over time.

Warren Buffet values and Conscious Incompetency:

The most valuable teaching from Ben Graham is that you are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. It is not complicated.

No one can value an internet stock. People only value internet stocks because it is exciting, not because they can. People investing in internet stocks were not doing so because they wanted to earn a return at an appropriate rate but because they thought it was exciting. For emotional reasons rather than logical. 1998 was the beginning of the internet stock bubble, known as the dot-com bubble or tech bubble.

To fully understand Warren Buffet’s way of investing, one can refer to The Warren Buffet Way or The Winning Investment Habits of Warrent Buffet & George Soros.

P/S: Currently Berkshire Harthaway is holding 200 millions shares of The Coke Cola Company, the second largest shareholding followed by Wells Fargo’s 302 millions shares.

Learn How To Pick Stock Like Warren Buffet

October 14th, 2009

When I did stock investment, I used to pick stock base on the name of the company and whether if i like the company rather than it is a profitable company. Profit From Panic (a book written by Singaporean author) described 8 steps in determining a good stock, i follow that ever since i read the book. I’m comfortable with his analysis techniques because he combines many winning stock picking strategies from some of the greatest investors such as Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham and Peter Lynch. One of the famous strategies adopted and embraced by Warren Buffet is value investing which was taught to him by his mentor, Ben. Graham.

I extracted most of the stock trading strategies from the book which i think most useful. The information is comprehensive and easy to follow so i think it’s a good to follow that guideline everytime i want to buy stock. Now here is it:

1. Consistant Earning Growth – First criteria of the stock i will be looking at is the company’s earning for 5 continous years (or more if you want to). Of course this will require me to study through the company’s annual report for 5 years (Usually the company’s website will highlight this in financial summary). Well, you don’t need to read everything in annual report considering it is hundred page long. Just some key figures will do, like profit after tax or income from operation. The earnings need to demontrate some consistant growth over these period of time, let say a growth of 10-15% year to year. If a company’s stock demonstrates consistent earning growth of 10-15% every year, then i would it’s a good buy. However we also need to look at other criteria.

Where to get earning figure: Net income/Profit after tax in balance sheet.

2. Sustainable Growth – After determining the company’s consistant earning growth, now i have to consider the sustainability of the growth, after all investing in a company’s share is actually buying into their growth, future prospects and you think the company can do well in the coming years. There are several factors that could interfere a company growth and one of them is competition. In order to overcome this obstacle, the company needs to demontrate either one of these few characteristics such as brand name, large existing market share, economic of scale, etc. For example: Coke is a soft drink brand every one in this world will know, and Genting being the one and only one in casino business in Malaysia.

3. Debt - Profit is only considered as real profit when there is no debt. For example you borrow 100k to start up a business and your revenue is 20k per month. Minus off operation expense, rental, employee and your own salary, you can only pay back 10k every month. You will only be able to break even on the tenth month and started to make profit on the eleventh month onward (This is just an oversimplified scenario, corporate financial is excruciatingly complicated).

But realistically speaking there isn’t much company out there has zero debt, a little leverage is still consider as healthy. There is no sure way to determine how much is too much debt, however as a measure, the figure should show at least something like; the long term debt is no more than three times of the annual net income then the company is still considered as healthy.

In real life, a good company is always in expansion and growth, which is good thing, so most probably there won’t be chance where you will see zero debt. As expansion require borrowing of money, borrowing needs to be paid, and earning to sustain the payment, this constant cycle that can never end. So as long the debt-to-annual net income ratio is not too high, says 3-1 in this case, then it’s only ideal. I personally went through many industry leaders’ company financial statement and their debt-to-income ratio is not as low as described, a lot of them is slightly higher in leveraging. So if that’s the point, it’s very subjective and we need to look further.

Where to get key figures: Non-current liability and annual net income (also call profit after tax) under balance sheet.

4. Return on Equity is another key figure we need to consider when reading a company’s annual report. The calculation looks like this:

ROE(%) = Net Profit After Tax Divided Divided By Shareholders’ Equity

In the result of this calculation we have an idea of roughly how much return is for per share. The book says 15% and above, however, i think the percentage is rather subjective, consider it is very much depended on type of company, or the sector the stock belongs to for example. However 15% is a safe guideline the book can assume.

Where to get ROE: It is included in balance sheet, but a lot of time we need to calculate it.

5. Strong Cash Flow – In difficult times like economic crisis, or natural disaster, cash flow is very important for a company. Consider the company suddenly encounter drop of revenue because of drop in demand, and then income suffers. Excess reverse of cash can be used to fund debts and operation expense before economical rebound or demand recovers. Lacking of cash might result a company to go for desperate measure like issue new shares, retrenchment or even bankruptcy. To measure a company’s cash position, we need key figures; net cash flow from operation, capital expenditure, and revenue . Net the cash flow from operation of the Capital Expenditure we obtain the free cash flow. The percentage margin of free cash flow is to divide free cash flow by total revenue. The bigger the percentage the more cash rich it is.

Where to get the key figures: Net cash flow from operation can be obtained from cash flow statement under operating activities section. Capital expenditure can be obtain from investing activities also under cash flow statement. Revenue can be obtained from Income Statement.

6. Management is Buying Back Shares – The most likely reason for a company’s director or CEO to buy their own share is because they think the market has undervalued the stock and they are picking it up as bargain and they want to make money when the share price goes up.

In contrast, if you know that the management is aggressively selling shares, most probably the stock price is overvalued and a correction is in pending (Correction is term use to refer to adjustment of stock price by the market to it’s so called fair value). Another reason could be that the company is in some kind of trouble and only the management knows that the stock price is in for a big dip!

In the next part i will write about stock intrinsic value calculation. That is the part i spend most of my time in picking a value stock.