Archive for the ‘Stock market’ category

Why Can’t People Make Money in Stock Market

November 17th, 2009

FutureMoney_stockmarketStock market went down to rock bottom last October, banks and insurance companies failed, investors lose huge amount of money, and followed by raise of unemployment rate. Government gave out hundreds billions dollar tax payers’ money in the form of bailout just to keep the economy afloat. More than a year later, economy is almost back to positive, from the look of it. However, one must not deny it is getting more risky to get into the market nowadays, consider the stock market has rallied beyond the economy fundamental (In my opinion) when unemployment rate is still high and many companies are still losing money. Any negative news will send the stock market into a major correction. As stock investor, it is important for us to learn what are the major mistakes we could possibly make thus to avoid it.

  1. Lack of financial literacy – One of the major reason why people lose money investing in stock market is because lack of financial education. In order to invest in stock market, one must understand and know how to read financial statements of the company that you are investing in. Three financial statements that we need to understand when come to analyzing a company’s financial position: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. Besides it is very important to understand stock and financial jargons before we can even start looking at stock market. Take one example: Stock ABC and DEF are both selling at $5 and $50 respectively. Which stock is more expensive? A person without any financial knowledge will think $50 is more expensive because the amount is larger. However a person with financial education would understand it takes the underlying company asset and financial prospect to evaluation the true value of the stock. In our example let say ABC cost $5 where by it should have worth $1, and DEF cost $50, where by it is really worth $100. Now which one is more expensive? Obviously stock ABC is 400% more expensive than it should be.
  2. Follow other people’s idea – Many people without financial education of stock will turn to other sources such stock analysis column in newspaper. Stock analysis is a good reference material for beginner stock investors but it shouldn’t be treated as investment decision. The reason why people can’t make money from buying stock analysis idea is because most analysis reports simply come out too late, before the analysis report being published, professional investors has already gone in and wait to make the killing. Small investors who buy into the stock idea will later go in and immediately get killed by well-informed investors.  
  3. Buying Hot Tips – A lot of time in stock investing arena we heard about so called hot tips from insiders. No people know exactly how true is the tips until proven otherwise. This is when people make a lot of losses by plunging into the stock. Thing is, most of the hot tips is spread from insider just so to push up the stock price so some one also from “inside” can make a profit. This kind of rise is not sustainable in long term, and it will retrace as soon as the news died down or some one has made a handsome profit by selling off the stock.
  4. Emotional Investor – Admittedly when comes to investing our own money, there is a part in us will always react irrationally, this is our emotion. The fear of losing money. The greed when seeing other investors making money. For those who fears, it usually happens when the person have previously experienced heavy loss from stock investing. The painful experience of losing money will cause him to back away from buying opportunities even though it is good time to buy. Fear will cause investors to stand at the side line, wait and see, and these investors will wait and see as long as they are afraid, but it is only when their fear overwhelmed by greed then they went into the market. They eventually get slaughtered because it is too late when they go in. Wait until fear overcame by greed is too late. There is one saying by the world wealthiest stock investor Warren Buffet: When everyone is afraid, you should be greedy. But when everyone is greedy, you should be very afraid.
  5. Sell Too Early and Sell Too Late – The first one will not earn you much money, and second one will lose you lots of money. Many people invest in stock without a clear set of exit strategies, strategies define when to sell to lock in to profit and when to sell to cut loss. Many people will sell their stock way too early and then witness the stock price skyrockets afterward. Even more people will hold on tight to the stock as long as the stock is going down, then sell only before it hits zero. Actually, these behaviors can also be attributed from lack of financial intelligence, the skill required to determine the stock intrinsic value thus developing the exit strategy.
  6. Timing the Market - Some investors believe in prediction, they believe there are signs to look out for the next big stock  market movement but many times they are wrong. They make huge loss from believing the so called prophecy. The thing is, stock market is consist of hundreds of millions of institutional, professional and individual investors who act and behave differently that contributed to the erratic and irrational stock movements over time. No one in their limited humanly mind can precisely predict what is going on next.
  7. Over Diversified – Certain level of diversification is good thing, as it could reduce losses when you are wrong but at the same time it also limit the profit when you are right. Over diversified will most probably kill you. Imagine having to keep track of 10 to 20 stocks per day. Besides, there is a thing call minimum brokerage fee that you need to pay for every stock trade. Since the proportion of each stock investment is small, minimum brokerage fee incurred will drown your potential return so much even before you make profit and try imagining most of the stocks remain status quo. As our greatest stock investor Warren Buffet says diversification is for birds. One diversifies only when he doesn’t know what he is doing.

Further topics related to stock investing:

  1. Where To Learn Financial Literacy
  2. What Warren Buffet Sees In His Companies
  3. 7 Ways To Pick Quality Stocks
  4. How You Can Make Money In Market Downturn

6 Reasons Why Stock Market Might Fail In Year End

October 14th, 2009

Stock market around the globe has been rallying ever since the beginning of the year, with many stocks become overvalued (to some analysts) and ran out of fundamental. Have you ever wondered if this recovery is in for real and permanent? There are many reasons to why the stock market will crash as it nearing end of the year (Between October and December), below are the 6 most major reasons. US being the largest economy in the world, the health of their financial system is vital to the recovery of global economy, thus most of the reasons also originated from US!

Reason #1 – Consumer is still down – The drive of the US economy is the consumer spending which accounts largely for the nation’s GDP, and the consumer is down and out. American has lost almost half of their wealth in the past 2 years; more than $4 trillion in credit lines will have vanished by year end. The real unemployment rate is roughly 20% and weekly work hours and wages are stagnant. In short, most consumers still have no extra income to spend.

Reason #2 –  W-shape recession/recovery? – Without consumer spending picking up drastically, the economy will likely to face a W-shape recession/recovery (not a V-shaped one). We are currently climbing the second leg of W (almost complete drawing a V shape) due to rising expectations about the economy, however the economy fundamental is not improving much. Media and government agency played a major role in painting a nicer than realistic picture on our economic outlook, is it only a hype or fact?

Reason #3 – Drag down by Bank Forecast – The banks have been leading the roller coaster ride for the fall and rise since last year October and March. Any negative comments or forecast of 2010 would easily send the market into another nose dive. And don’t forget banks in America still bear billions of toxic assets/mortgage.

Reason #4 – Stock Overvalued against Lower Earning – Stock has been rallying out of fundamental since the beginning of the year. Some says the stock has becoming so expensive that it is ridiculous consider economy is still fragile and breakable. Therefore, any lower than expected earning reports in coming months will translate to stock price being overvalued, thus will send the stock price south or a major correction.

Reason #5 – Light buying volume/light buying interest – Comparing to the historical bull market pattern, the recent buying volume is consider very light. This is the indication that many large investors, institutional investors or funds are still not buying in the stock for long term. Not buying interest from large institution like mutual funds means no strong bottom line support and no further upside to a long term bull market. Because of no strong bottom line support, any negative news could send many small investors running for shelter thus sending the stock price into a nose dive.

Reason #6 – History repeats? There is deadly similarity between the chart of the rally began March 09 and that of 1937 – 1938 (The W-shaped recession during last depression) - which followed by a sharp pull-back. Could the history repeat itself once again?

There are more reasons for the stock market to crash in coming month than merely the 6 reasons covered above. I find these reasons more relevant to the situation I see in the recent stock market. The other reasons are more to the result of technical analysis. If you find the stock market crash reasons to make sense, what will you do if…

You are holding some stock, be it in Bursa KL or NY Stock Exchange?

Will you wait and see…

Or

Sell as early as possible, so to avoid selling at a ridiculously low price and make huge loss. A better alternative is to protect your stock price by buying a put option. Read my option trading article here.

For those of you who thought you missed the early bus in March 09, this could be another chance for you to buy into the stock at a discounted price.

What Warren Buffet Sees In His Companies?

October 14th, 2009

Warren Buffet raised a can of Coke and said that it is easy to understand business of the soft drink, while he was giving a MBA talk at University of Florida. It is a simple business. Not easy, but simple. A business needs to have a moat around it and a wonderful and valuable castle in the center. And a person running the business needs to be honest, hard working and capable.

The moat can be low cost company like in Geico – the auto insurance company. People have to buy auto insurance. People can’t buy 20 policies, but they have to buy one since they usually have one automobile at home. People have to buy it based on service and cost. People assume that the service at any auto insurance company is the same so all you can do is compete on cost. Being the lowest cost producer is the moat.

30 years ago, Eastman Kodak’s moat was just as wide as Cokes moat. Kodak was the go to brand in cameras. Everyone had the vision in their head that Kodak was the best. But Kodak let Fuji into their castle due to an error where Fuji advertised via the Olympics instead of Kodak. Fuji eventually was viewed to be at parity with Kodak eventually.

Coke’s moat is wider than it was 30 years ago. Every day that Coke enters a new marketplace, the moat gets a little bigger. You don’t see it every day but over the long term you can see it. 

Moats can exist due to things like:

1) Service

2) Quality of Product

3) Cost

4) Patents

5) Real Estate location

6) It needs to be obvious that people can not easily enter the market.

 

He furthered by explaining the business of Coke:

 The one thing people don’t understand about all Colas is that it doesn’t have any taste memory. You can drink one every hour and you don’t get sick of it after awhile. You can not say that about orange soda, cream soda root beer, etc. People around the world can become heavy users. You can not do that with other products. The average person in the US drinks 64 ounces of liquid a day. You can have all 64 ounces by drinking Coke (or any Cola). With any other product, you will get sick of it after a while. Because of this, over the world, sales of Coke will increase per capita over time.

Warren Buffet values and Conscious Incompetency:

The most valuable teaching from Ben Graham is that you are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. It is not complicated.

No one can value an internet stock. People only value internet stocks because it is exciting, not because they can. People investing in internet stocks were not doing so because they wanted to earn a return at an appropriate rate but because they thought it was exciting. For emotional reasons rather than logical. 1998 was the beginning of the internet stock bubble, known as the dot-com bubble or tech bubble.

To fully understand Warren Buffet’s way of investing, one can refer to The Warren Buffet Way or The Winning Investment Habits of Warrent Buffet & George Soros.

P/S: Currently Berkshire Harthaway is holding 200 millions shares of The Coke Cola Company, the second largest shareholding followed by Wells Fargo’s 302 millions shares.