Archive for the ‘investment’ category

Why Can’t People Make Money in Stock Market

November 17th, 2009

FutureMoney_stockmarketStock market went down to rock bottom last October, banks and insurance companies failed, investors lose huge amount of money, and followed by raise of unemployment rate. Government gave out hundreds billions dollar tax payers’ money in the form of bailout just to keep the economy afloat. More than a year later, economy is almost back to positive, from the look of it. However, one must not deny it is getting more risky to get into the market nowadays, consider the stock market has rallied beyond the economy fundamental (In my opinion) when unemployment rate is still high and many companies are still losing money. Any negative news will send the stock market into a major correction. As stock investor, it is important for us to learn what are the major mistakes we could possibly make thus to avoid it.

  1. Lack of financial literacy – One of the major reason why people lose money investing in stock market is because lack of financial education. In order to invest in stock market, one must understand and know how to read financial statements of the company that you are investing in. Three financial statements that we need to understand when come to analyzing a company’s financial position: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. Besides it is very important to understand stock and financial jargons before we can even start looking at stock market. Take one example: Stock ABC and DEF are both selling at $5 and $50 respectively. Which stock is more expensive? A person without any financial knowledge will think $50 is more expensive because the amount is larger. However a person with financial education would understand it takes the underlying company asset and financial prospect to evaluation the true value of the stock. In our example let say ABC cost $5 where by it should have worth $1, and DEF cost $50, where by it is really worth $100. Now which one is more expensive? Obviously stock ABC is 400% more expensive than it should be.
  2. Follow other people’s idea – Many people without financial education of stock will turn to other sources such stock analysis column in newspaper. Stock analysis is a good reference material for beginner stock investors but it shouldn’t be treated as investment decision. The reason why people can’t make money from buying stock analysis idea is because most analysis reports simply come out too late, before the analysis report being published, professional investors has already gone in and wait to make the killing. Small investors who buy into the stock idea will later go in and immediately get killed by well-informed investors.  
  3. Buying Hot Tips – A lot of time in stock investing arena we heard about so called hot tips from insiders. No people know exactly how true is the tips until proven otherwise. This is when people make a lot of losses by plunging into the stock. Thing is, most of the hot tips is spread from insider just so to push up the stock price so some one also from “inside” can make a profit. This kind of rise is not sustainable in long term, and it will retrace as soon as the news died down or some one has made a handsome profit by selling off the stock.
  4. Emotional Investor – Admittedly when comes to investing our own money, there is a part in us will always react irrationally, this is our emotion. The fear of losing money. The greed when seeing other investors making money. For those who fears, it usually happens when the person have previously experienced heavy loss from stock investing. The painful experience of losing money will cause him to back away from buying opportunities even though it is good time to buy. Fear will cause investors to stand at the side line, wait and see, and these investors will wait and see as long as they are afraid, but it is only when their fear overwhelmed by greed then they went into the market. They eventually get slaughtered because it is too late when they go in. Wait until fear overcame by greed is too late. There is one saying by the world wealthiest stock investor Warren Buffet: When everyone is afraid, you should be greedy. But when everyone is greedy, you should be very afraid.
  5. Sell Too Early and Sell Too Late – The first one will not earn you much money, and second one will lose you lots of money. Many people invest in stock without a clear set of exit strategies, strategies define when to sell to lock in to profit and when to sell to cut loss. Many people will sell their stock way too early and then witness the stock price skyrockets afterward. Even more people will hold on tight to the stock as long as the stock is going down, then sell only before it hits zero. Actually, these behaviors can also be attributed from lack of financial intelligence, the skill required to determine the stock intrinsic value thus developing the exit strategy.
  6. Timing the Market - Some investors believe in prediction, they believe there are signs to look out for the next big stock  market movement but many times they are wrong. They make huge loss from believing the so called prophecy. The thing is, stock market is consist of hundreds of millions of institutional, professional and individual investors who act and behave differently that contributed to the erratic and irrational stock movements over time. No one in their limited humanly mind can precisely predict what is going on next.
  7. Over Diversified – Certain level of diversification is good thing, as it could reduce losses when you are wrong but at the same time it also limit the profit when you are right. Over diversified will most probably kill you. Imagine having to keep track of 10 to 20 stocks per day. Besides, there is a thing call minimum brokerage fee that you need to pay for every stock trade. Since the proportion of each stock investment is small, minimum brokerage fee incurred will drown your potential return so much even before you make profit and try imagining most of the stocks remain status quo. As our greatest stock investor Warren Buffet says diversification is for birds. One diversifies only when he doesn’t know what he is doing.

Further topics related to stock investing:

  1. Where To Learn Financial Literacy
  2. What Warren Buffet Sees In His Companies
  3. 7 Ways To Pick Quality Stocks
  4. How You Can Make Money In Market Downturn

How to Pick Winning Mutual Fund

October 31st, 2009

Mutual fund is one of the most popular investment vehicles in the market nowadays, generally it pools money from huge number of investors and diversify the investment into a number of selected stocks from different sectors, bonds, and other securities. It is so popular among average investors because it lifts the burden off of having to pick up some of the most important investment intelligence. This important task is then handed over to the fund manager who we hope that, can invest our money better than us.

However, even though managed by reputable investment firms, the best financial institution, or the so called expert of the field, still many mutual fund investors out there are not making much money, worse yet even more investors are still experiencing heavy losses. There are many reasons investors are not making money from mutual fund.

  1. High Entry Cost and Annual Fee. Some funds charge as high as 6% at initial entry and 1.5 – 2% every year as administrative charges. This means that before you mutual fund even earning you some returns, you are down by 8%. In order to make any gain, the fund will basically have to perform at the rate of return of 8% or more.
  2. Snapshot of Big Gain. It is common for investment firm to show spectacular gain of a specific period in order lure potential investors. What investors don’t realize is that the big gain shown in the mutual fund prospectus is captured during a booming period when the fund manager is chasing for some hot stocks in shorter term. This kind of gain does not last, and most probably it will go south when investors buy into the fund.
  3. Limited Investment Options in Local Market. There are only a limited number of funds available in the market, in my context, the Malaysia market. Even there is only limited number of funds in Asian countries compare to the US market where there is probably more than 8000 mutual funds out there. Adding to the frustration, there are only a small number of funds that are performing, and if you are limited to only to a few choices, your chance of high return is low to none.  
  4. Not Enough Information and Research Tools.  The single most important reason why investors don’t make money from mutual fund is because lack of information and knowledge of research tools. Average mutual fund investors can only pick funds that are presented to them by sales agents and the only information they can get about the fund is the prospectus that doesn’t show much useful information. Without knowledge of useful research tools and access to information of vast choice of mutual fund out there, one would have no choice but be bounded to limited losing choices. 

If you just decided to invest in mutual fund or have been making a loss, don’t lose hope yet because there is a better way you can pick the winning mutual fund. The best of all, what you are going to learn to use is totally free and accessible through internet!

  1. Open your web browser and logon to www.morningstar.com. Look for Fund tab on the upper menu and click on it. Please refer to below screen shot.FutureMoney_MorningStarFrontPage
  2. Look for Fund Screener at the left panel of the web site. Clicking this will bring you to page where you can enter filters to obtain a list of funds with winning criteria.
    FutureMoney_MS_screener
  3. Select your preferred type of fund from Fund Group. For the sake of example, I will leave it as All, so it will find fund from all categories.
  4. Select 5 Years for manager tenure. This is to make sure only the funds with experienced fund manager will be selected.
  5. For minimum initial purchase, it depends on how much money you can afford at the moment. For our example, we will just put $1,000 minimum.
  6. Select No-load fund only for load funds. Select this to filter out any mutual funds that require entry cost and management fees.
  7. Select 4 and 5 Morningstar Star Rating. Morningstar have their own system and measurements in term of rating a fund, to keep things simple, the more stars the better.
  8. Select below than average for Morningstar Risk.FutureMoney_MS_screener1
  9. In term of return, select S&P 500 for 5-year return. This is to make sure whatever mutual funds found match the performance of S&P500 index for period of 5 years.
  10. For total assets, select 1 or 5 billions. This is to make sure the fund is not too small to go bust easily and has enough capital to sustain itself.
  11. If you have a targeted duration to realize the profit, select duration. In our case, we put 5 years length.
  12. Now, by clicking show result, the next screen will display a list of short listed mutual funds that meet your criteria.
    FutureMoney_MS_screener2FutureMoney_MS_Screener3    

Analysis of Shortlisted Mutual Funds

As you can see from the screen shot, Morningstar returns mutual funds from very different categories and those rated with 4 stars and above. It also shows in the list the Year To Date (YTD) return in percentage and total asset for all the listed mutual funds. If you click on one of the fund, let say DFA Emerging markets with YTD return of 56%. This will bring you to quote page. Here, you can see a lot of information that is related to the fund. For example: the net asset value, change of value in day, load amount, a graph showing 10 years performance, trading range within a year, total asset under management, investment type, category, risk and return, etc.

Also in quote page, under Morningstar Risk Measures column, you can find out the risk and return of the mutual fund as compared to other mutual fund in the same category. In our case, risk is below average for the category, while return is above average compared to other mutual fund from the same category, this is a plus point.

Look under Performance column, it shows the performance of the fund for various period of time. In our interest, we look at 3, 5 or maybe 10 years performance. For DFA Emerging Market, the rate of return is 6.77%, 16.30% and 11.38%, which is doing quite well. Interest we get by putting money in bank fixed deposit is not even 3% nowadays.

Click to navigate to Rating & Risk page. This page will show you the Morningstar rating for the mutual fund in term of past invested period from 3 to 10 years or above. Besides, there are two key figures we need to focus on; Standard Deviation and Sharpe Ratio. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the range of a fund’s performance. When a fund has a high standard deviation, its history shows a wide range of performance, indicating a greater potential for volatility. Simply put, the greater the standard deviation, the greater the fund’s volatility. The Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted performance by comparing a fund’s average monthly return to the average monthly return of a Treasury bill, which is a risk-free investment. Simply put, the higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the fund’s historical risk-adjusted performance. In our case, the standard deviation and Sharpe ratio is 30.66 and 0.28. Although I would say 30.66 is quite high and 0.28 is quite low, so these points are not doing that well.

If you navigate to Management page, you can see the fund manager detail, biography, start date and so on. For this fund, Karen E. Umland has been managing the fund since 1997, which is more than 10 years. So we hope that she will continue to manage the fund and maintain or outperform the next 5 years.

To find out which investment firm to approach in order to purchase the mutual fund, simply click on Purchase and you will be brought to the page where there is a list of brokerage firms that are offering the investment product. As you can see in the same page, it also mentions free charges for various administrative efforts. However there isn’t really a zero cost fund around in the market, as they probably have already factored in the cost into your future gain, so you will need to read the fine lines before purchasing a fund. If the potential gain is not dampened much by the factored cost then it will be still fine.      

In order to find out which mutual fund is the best among the short listed, you need to establish a shorter list of the highest ranked mutual funds, type it down in an Excel document or write in a paper spreadsheet. For each mutual fund, find out the key figures and winning criteria that have been mentioned above. With the list prepared and the best fund determined, you are now better prepared to purchase your next winning mutual fund.

Talking About Customer Service Of Airlines

October 14th, 2009

If you live in Malaysia or Singapore and travel frequently, most likely you have taken flight of both Malaysian and Singapore airline. As the name indicated, one belongs to Malaysian company and another to Singaporean.

This year I have a few chances to travel back and forth united states via both airlines. I travel to Texas, through both airline, the stops are differents. MAS stops in Taipei, Los Angelas and the subsequently reach Dallas, Texas. While for SIA, The flight will stop at Hong Kong, San francisco and then Dallas.

While both airlines offer good in flight service in this international route, however there are also many things our Malaysia airline so lacked behind to it’s competitors..

Flight Experience

First of all, when entering the SIA aircraft, I find the aircraft condition is so much better than that of MAS, I won’t go into compare different type of aircraft make as MAS is using Boeng while SIA is using Airbus. However at first look, SIA gives a cleaner look, probably the interior is better maintained with neat cushion upholstery, and comfortable mood of lighting.

Besides, there are many little extra seat features provided by SIA. anyone who used to travel long distance would find these little things add up to a lot of values. Things like, a much bigger LCD screen, a USB port  to charge handphone or PDA, additional seat pockets to put your stuff like wallet, passport, handphone, Ipod, etc. More head room so you don’t feel clautrophobic (Different aircraft configurations). You can’t find this in MAS.

Food menu wise, in my opinion SIA offers higher value meals. Aside from those very normal choices like chicken, fish or beef dishes, they do have things like salmon salad, Hagendaz ice-cream, popsicle, variety of cocktail drinks, nothing very fancy, but as passenger I know these little things will keep me coming back, after all people do like extra goodies. While the best thing I have from MAS is the so-so cheese cake or probably the small savory peanut pack (which is also offered by SIA).

For in flight entertainment, SIA is much better as well. Not only the LCD screen is much bigger, it project clear picture as well. For I used to suffer on the small blurry picture when flying with MAS. Besides, i can safely say that choice of movies is double of what MAS offers. There are many other entertainment options which I have no time to explore, but there are people who do!

Pre-Sale Experience

Recently I have an unpleasant experience in MAS online reservation web site, for those who doesn’t know there is one, it is in a totally different URL which is difficult to locate through search engine, or it is rather confusing. I attempted a few times in completing the reservation but a few time my effort went to waste. And finally, I manage to make the reservation, after a few disgrunted phone calls that got no answer or not getting any helpful answer. I used up 2 days time to make a simple reservation.

Revenue Leakage

All These lead me to think, if not for MAS national carrier status, it would have gone down many years ago. First of all, I can see they lose so much potential revenue simply from their faulty online reservation system, not many customers are as patience as me, who is willing to try two or three times. In information age, if you can’t be effective in your online based system, you lose out to competitors. Airasia is a good of example of competitor with their effective online reservation system. It has never give me any trouble before, if it did, it would have served more than failing me, and i bet more than half of their revenue is also generated from online reservation! Being easy to use and effective system simply add so much convenience to customer thus providing value in service even before business is transacted. In case of MAS, Service value is already being minused before the ticket is even purchased!

Management Efficiency

This article is not just a rambling about bad service or food. In evaluating a company’s management effectiveness from stock investment point of view, this is how you can see their level of competitiveness: how effective is the company generating revenue (effective reservation system) , how good is their strategy in retaining customer (extra goodies here and there, more comfortable seat, etc). Is the company revoluting in economic downturn to stay competitive. During the recent downturn when a lot of European and US airlines gone down, MAS announcing losses, Airasia start to provide seat selection with a fee, while I could only notice MAS domestic flight cut cost by offering obviously cheaper food thus further reducing value of service.

 Airline is a very competitive industry, with fuel price soaring to new high. Beside increasing airfare, the airline should provide more value added service so the value of service won’t be diluted. Because if you can’t do it, there bound to be some one more efficient who can. When this day come, it will be the change of market leader.